Interdependence, Perception, and Investment Choices: An Experimental Approach to Decision Making in Innovation Ecosystems

Ron Adner, Daniel Feiler · 2019 · Organization Science

Summary. Decision makers systematically overestimate success in interdependent innovation projects. When success probabilities are presented separately for each partner rather than as a combined probability, people become more optimistic, especially with more partners involved. This leads to inflated project valuations, adding unnecessary partners, and overinvestment in individual components. The pattern holds across different risk contexts and participant groups from students to executives.

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Adner, R., & Feiler, D.. (2019). Interdependence, Perception, and Investment Choices: An Experimental Approach to Decision Making in Innovation Ecosystems. Organization Science. https://doi.org/10.1287/orsc.2018.1242

@article{adner-2019-interdependence-perception-investment-choices-experimental,
  title   = {Interdependence, Perception, and Investment Choices: An Experimental Approach to Decision Making in Innovation Ecosystems},
  author  = {Ron Adner and Daniel Feiler},
  journal = {Organization Science},
  year    = {2019},
  doi     = {10.1287/orsc.2018.1242},
  url     = {https://doi.org/10.1287/orsc.2018.1242}
}

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AU  - Ron Adner
AU  - Daniel Feiler
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DO  - 10.1287/orsc.2018.1242
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Details

DOI: 10.1287/orsc.2018.1242
Countries: United States
Regions: North America
Categories: innovation-theory, innovation-networks, general-innovation
Added: 2026-04-28